Probably Stolen launched on Steam yesterday, October 28, and its developer says it sold 200,000 copies and passed 100,000 concurrent players before the first day was over. Questing Goose Studio posted the numbers on r/IndieGaming with the line “NGL, it came out of nowhere.”
It did not come out of nowhere for anyone watching Steam Next Fest. The Probably Stolen demo was the most played demo of the whole October festival on our chart, peaking at 39,696 players at once, ahead of Worst Class Ever at 27,684.
76,000 people were playing at 1 PM Eastern, a day after launch
Steam’s own player count backs up the studio’s claim. At 1 PM Eastern today, a full day after release, Probably Stolen had 76,160 people in it, which is still nearly double the demo’s peak. The game had collected more than 1,800 Steam user reviews by the same point. It costs $19.99, with a 10 percent launch discount bringing it to $17.99 for now.
The demo topped our Next Fest chart by 12,000 players
Our Steam Next Fest October 2026 wrap-up tracked every demo’s concurrent players hourly through the festival. Probably Stolen led from early on and finished first at 39,696 peak, with the next demo about 12,000 behind. That is the clearest Next Fest to launch conversion we have seen since we started charting the festival, and a useful data point for anyone arguing about whether a strong demo week predicts sales.
You run a shop as a former smuggler, and the rent keeps going up
Probably Stolen is a shopkeeping sim set on a dystopian space station. You play a former smuggler running a trade business: craft and sell goods, move items “of questionable origin,” pick which factions to stay loyal to, and try to earn enough to buy out your shop before rising rent forces your hand. The difficulty settings are named Price Gouge, Mark Up and Thin Margins, and you pick starting perks before each run. Publisher tinyBuild handles the release.
The studio’s launch trailer shows the counter, the back room crafting and the station’s security sweeps.
